Last 2 months in review
The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting
My original strategy for this portfolio aimed at learning was: buy and hold staked BADGER until February. It was the only early-stage project I was invested in.
That’s it. Low effort, simple strategy.
Then a dip came. I doubled my position on a dip and wrote down that if we break a key price level, I would sell it.
We broke this level. I didn’t sell.
Not selling was not a mistake (clearly). But I then decided to use the same rule for the whole 2x position I had now.
I couldn’t control myself. This was not properly sized for that plan. That led me to a series of unnecessary moves during this period.
Some were positive and gave me exposure to assets and communities that were constructive — even if they underperformed on returns. Some were straight-up useless and harmful.
(1) Sold Badger, taking some profits out of the table - not bad given the initial position was 2x what I was actually comfortable risking. Anyway, it was really too early to take profits at this rate.
At least I didn’t do it at the bottom, but I could have been patient. I went through the worst time (in BTC/ETH/USD terms) but started to sell right after we climbed from the bottom.
(2) Changed my position from pure Badger to Badger/WBTC LP. Big mistake. Suffered Impermanet Loss. At least I reversed that to pure Badger when the run started. The lesson here: learn to identify mistakes and act quickly to reverse them.
(As an aside, I’ve had a mistake/reversal in BTC during the post-election run in 2016. I thought the big pump was unsustainable. Bought it back a few days after, at a higher price, and the price never again went lower than that.
It would have been one of the most expensive mistakes of my life if I had stuck to it. Not only for the money but because I was not full time in crypto back then. That could have me biased against the market and I would be in a very different spot now.
Anyway, going back to the review )
(3) Sold a majority of DIGG when airdropped, staked the rest. Well while DIGG outperformed everything, I do not necessarily consider this a mistake. I’m not exactly bullish on the future of DIGG (or any rebase token for that matter), but I’ll stick to my position because there’s a learning experience here. I’ll only sell it if it goes above what I’m willing to risk on something I’m not convinced (10-15%)
(4) Bought NFTX and PUNK. This is something that performed well and definitely was a net positive on my learning and thinking about a different vertical.
I’ve been actually focusing more on NFTs, given I sense there’s more opportunity to come and the market cap is still low.
(5) SUSHI, DPI, CREAM: Good buys thus far, but everything has been going up. Let’s see how it performs in a downturn.
The lessons here are:
Size your positions correctly, in such a way that your initial plan is credible even with large swings in price (up AND down)
Once you start getting confirmation for your thesis, act slowly so take profits and rebalance. Be patient. Having a plan for being right is as important as having a plan for being wrong.
Remain pro-action if the point is to get involved in a new project (like Badger or NFTX). Less need for action if it's purely a trade, you don’t learn as much from that (SUSHI, DPI, CREAM)
Make an effort to stick to your plans. This journal has been very helpful for that.